The government is about to begin campaigning in earnest to secure a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum on the proposed changes to the constitution set for April; success in the referendum for the government is currently not certain.
- The nationalist MHP, whose leadership is supporting the government’s proposed changes, has still failed to convince its base, while the AKP’s base is not overwhelmingly supportive.
- The government’s upcoming campaign, set to focus on security issues, will seek to appeal to AKP, MHP and even CHP supporters, but risks overusing the security issue.
- The CHP and HDP’s uncoordinated opposition to the changes may inadvertently serve the government’s interests.
- The government is set to invest considerable political capital in the changes: failure to introduce them would shake but probably not unseat the AKP.
With the proposed changes to the constitution passed in parliament, a referendum is set for April of this year, and the AKP is gearing up to campaign heavily for a ‘yes’ vote. If recent polls are accurate, the campaigning will be needed for the government to secure its desired result, as support for the changes is still below the required level. While a majority of AKP supporters say…
To receive the full briefing, please click here to subscribe or become a CEFTUS member.
A basic subscription, starting from £20/month, entitles subscribers to daily news digests and weekly analytical briefings on current affairs in Turkey.
Basic membership, starting from £90/month, provides members with a subscription, other products, as well as access to all CEFTUS’ exclusive roundtable events, typically priced at £50/event.
To commission analytical work on Turkey, Iran, Iraq or Syria, or should you have any questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
Photo credit: Sputnik News
26 January 2017