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Briefing on the Turkish lira crisis

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16 August 2018 The Turkish government has bought itself time but still faces a potential economic crisis The Turkish lira has rallied amid government steps to stabilise the financial system and secure foreign investment Although temporarily effective, these measures have failed to address the political and economic factors driving a potential crisis, most notably the […]

Briefing on Turkey’s new cabinet

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09 August 2018 President Erdogan’s picks for his new cabinet offer an insight into the direction of his government New Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak is likely to oversee the continuation of an increasingly unorthodox economic policy As Defence Minister, former Armed Forces Chief-of-Staff Hulusi Akar will be tasked with managing the transition that […]

Briefing on US sanctions against Turkey

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26 July 2018 Domestic politics risks pushing Turkey-US relations into a period of perpetual crisis The dispute between the US and Turkey over detained nationals has been increasingly driven by the local political priorities of both governments The move to impose sanctions may have short-term benefits for the Trump administration but is also likely to […]

Briefing on Turkey and the future of NATO

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26 July 2018 Turkey is likely to continue to test but not overstep the limits of the NATO alliance Turkey’s relationship with NATO has been corroded by internal divisions and divergent strategic priorities Growing cooperation with Russia has added to concerns that Turkey is pivoting away from the West But despite seeking greater autonomy, Turkey […]

Briefing on the 2nd anniversary of the failed coup and the end of the state of emergency

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19 July 2018 In the two years since the thwarted military coup the Turkish state has been transformed Emergency powers and a fortified sense of popular legitimacy have enabled the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to initiate profound reforms The military has been definitively brought under the government’s control, while the civilian bureaucracy is […]

Briefing on the growing influence of the Nationalist Action Party

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12 July 2018 Having increasingly defined the political agenda, the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) is set to shape Turkey’s next government The Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) failure to win an outright majority in parliament leaves it increasingly reliant on its Nationalist Action Party (MHP) allies This marks the culmination of a process that has […]

Briefing on Manbij and Turkey’s position in Syria

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05 July 2018 Events in Manbij, Syria are likely to determine Turkey’s future role in the country   Turkey hopes a recent agreement will see it take control of Manbij from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed militia headed by Kurdish fighters Turkish officials argue Manbij could pave the way for Turkey and its Syrian […]

CEFTUS 2018 General Election Preview

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21 June 2018 On June 24, Turkey will hold one of the most important elections in its recent history    President Erdogan remains on course to be re-elected despite the potential for the contest to go to a second-round run-off However, a renewed majority for the ruling Justice and Development Party is far from guaranteed amid […]

Briefing on the growing importance of the Felicity Party

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14 June 2018 The ruling Justice and Development Party is facing a growing challenge from within its own religious-conservative political tradition   The Felicity Party (SP) is rooted in the Turkish Islamist movement from which the Justice and Development Party (AKP) emerged but has become increasingly critical of the government The SP is expected to win […]